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对话普华永道林骏达:未来3至4年单一人形机器人形态无法适配全场景作业需求,2030年三类机器人形态将稳定共存_我的网站

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A |     每经记者:张梓桐 每经编辑:魏文艺          7月22日,普华永道中国发布《2026年智能机器人产业发展白皮书》。白皮书指出,中国智能机器人产业已从试点验证迈入规模化落地关键期,预计到2030年将呈现“形态多元化、场景精准化、技术协同化”的发展格局。         但热潮之下,一连串行业争议悬而未决:大厂携资金、算力优势大举入场,创业公司还有多少生存空间?资本疯狂追捧具身智能大模型,商业化落地困局能否被算法破解?押注通用人形机器人,还是深耕垂直场景,哪条路线能够跑通?白皮书发布后,普华永道思略特中国科技、媒体及通信行业合伙人林骏达在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时,深度拆解了行业当下的机遇与隐忧。         林骏达 图片来源:受访者提供          大厂与创业公司分层竞争:赛道无零和博弈,各司其职形成互补          当前,具身智能赛道企业阵营清晰割裂,外界普遍存在一种争论:手握算力、资金、供应链优势的大厂,是否会挤压创业公司的生存空间?          在林骏达看来,当前具身智能赛道并非单一的竞争格局,市场参与者可清晰划分为两大阵营、四类主体,不同玩家基因迥异、壁垒分明,现阶段并非零和博弈,而是各司其职、互补发展。         入局赛道的大厂主要分为两类。一类是以阿里、京东、腾讯为代表的互联网大厂,其核心优势集中在算力储备、大模型算法、数据积累与现金流资源上,长期的互联网技术积淀让其在通用智能算法、模型迭代创新层面具备天然优势,擅长布局泛化性强、适配多场景的通用技术体系。

B |     

It was a motorcade that recalled the highly protected trips Donald Trump took when he was the president of the United States. The streets had been cleared for his easy passage, law enforcement on motorcycles made sure he was safe, and the area where Trump was visiting was locked down hours before he arrived.
But this was no rally, no presidential speech. Trump was taking a grim trip – albeit one more luxurious than most in his position – to a notoriously run-down Fulton County jail, where he was formally put under arrest for more than a dozen charges that could land him behind bars for many years if he is convicted.
Most candidates would not want images of themselves being forced to appear at a jail and processed on racketeering charges. In an earlier era not so long ago, it would have spelled the end of a political campaign.
But for Trump, a man who spent his career slapping his name on everything from hotels to steaks and vodka, and who delighted in having his name in the New York City gossip columns, even the indignity of being treated like a common criminal wasn't enough to evoke the slightest embarrassment.
"From a bottom-line business perspective,” Trump wrote in his book "The Art of the Deal," referring to a controversy during the building of Trump Tower, “bad publicity is sometimes better than no publicity at all.”
Trump's surrender Thursday was hardly designed to avoid publicity. The former president was given two weeks – with a deadline of noon Friday – to show up at the Fulton County jail for processing on more than a dozen charges related to a scheme to steal the presidential election in Georgia.
He could have come at any time in a 24-hour period. He chose to arrive at prime-time viewing hours, when much of the country would be home from work and able to watch his arrival on TV.
It wasn't the first time – by a long shot – that Trump has been in a legal conflict, and it wasn't even the first time he was indicted. But the former president's processing at a decrepit Fulton County jail Thursday brought him closest to being treated like a common criminal defendant.
It was a rare example of Trump not being somewhere largely on his own terms. He had a deadline to appear in person or face a warrant for his arrest. He had to endure the typical indignities of lesser-known accused criminals, including having law enforcement take a photo of one of the most recognizable faces in the country.
In his three previous indictments – two federal sets of charges and one in New York City, brought by the local district attorney – Trump has been given a lot more leeway.
He has had to appear in court but has not been forced in those three cases to go through the usual processing – although he has found reason to complain about his treatment, reportedly getting rankled when a federal judge during an arraignment in Washington addressed him as “Mr. Trump” after his lawyers introduced him as “President Trump.”
But while Trump's defenders say he is the victim of a two-tiered system of justice, the former president has still enjoyed special status – not just as a high-profile defendant but as a wealthy one, legal experts say.
Trump wasn't asked to turn in his passport or agree to a range of pre-trial demands often put on defendants (such as not using alcohol or drugs). He's not been told not to leave the state.
The former president hasn't had to endure the humiliation of the "perp walk" – where prosecutors build public support for a case by parading handcuffed defendants in a walk to the courthouse. Notably, the practice was elevated by one-time federal prosecutor Rudy Giuliani, who is now among Trump's 18 co-defendants in the Georgia case and who is free on $150,000 bond.
This booking photo provided by Fulton County Sheriff's Office, shows former President Donald Trump on Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023, after he surrendered and was booked at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta. Trump is accused by District Attorney Fani Willis of scheming to subvert the will of Georgia voters in a desperate bid to keep Joe Biden out of the White House. (Fulton County Sheriff's Office via AP)Uncredited
Nor has Trump been handcuffed or jailed while awaiting posting of bail, as many defendants are. And the very fact that Trump has the resources to post bond separates him from the majority of defendants, notes Russell Gold, a University of Alabama School of Law professor who is an expert on civil and criminal procedure.
"Pre-trial detention has been the place where his treatment is somewhat exceptional," says Gold, and allows him more leeway in his case. In many cases, even innocent defendants agree to plead guilty because they can't afford bail, and so agree to a plea of time served, he says. Spending time in jail, even for an innocent defendant, can cause life-changing consequences such as the loss of a job or custody of children. Detained defendants also have a harder time meeting with lawyers to prepare their cases, Gold notes.
Between 1970 and 2015, the number of people who have been detained prior to trial increased 433% – and pre-trial detainees are the larger proportion of all incarcerated individuals, according to a 2022 report by the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. Six out of 10 defendants are behind bars before trial simply because they can't afford bail, the commission found – a problem the wealthy former president, who has raised millions for his defense, does not have.
Once at the courthouse, the Trump processing went quickly – another experience atypical for the typical defendant, says Atlanta-based attorney Chris Timmons, who was a Georgia county prosecutor for 17 years before entering private practice.
In one case, where he was defending someone in information technology, it took three hours to get him booked, Timmons said, as law enforcement searched for paperwork.
Trump has also been given more notice, and an ability to surrender on his own schedule, says Jarrett Wolf, a former prosecutor and former Drug Enforcement Agency special agent now in private legal practice in Miami. "He wasn't arrested at 6 in the morning," as is often done with people charged with crimes, Wolf says.
The former president also knew about the investigations of his behavior and was given a heads-up that charges were coming.
"It's unusual to have a warning that the government is investigating you," Gold says.
Trump's legal team has cited the massive trove of documents handed over to them as a reason to delay the federal trial on charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection until April 2026. But it's unusual for a defendant to be given papers and evidence by the prosecution at such an early stage, Gold says – another advantage Trump has over typical defendants.
Trump, however, isn't acting like a typical defendant, either. Instead of trying to keep his legal problems private – or walking into a courthouse or jail with his jacket pulled over his face – the former president is reveling in the attention, which riles up his political base and feeds his contention that he is being persecuted for political reasons.
"I think there is a sort of political logic in his mind here, the argument that he is being targeted by the liberal state," says David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College. "So I think rather than act like he is ashamed of it – which I don't think he is, anyway – the strategy is to court the attention and to frame yourself as if the attacks you are experiencing are symbolic of the attacks on your supporters."
That approach seems to be working for the former president, so far: A Des Moines Register/NBC poll this week found that support for Trump among Iowa Republicans hardened after the Georgia indictments. Before the Fulton County charges, 55% of Iowa Republicans favored or were “actively considering Trump." After the fourth indictment, that number went up to 67%, the poll found.
Next year, however, political rhetoric may become legal reality for Trump, who could face several trials during his campaign for president. With a daunting campaign schedule competing with court appearances, the former president may find that there is, indeed, such a thing as bad publicity.
。         另一类是以手机、车企为核心的千亿元级硬件厂商,这类企业深耕硬件制造多年,核心壁垒体现在产品定义能力与成熟的供应链体系中,依托长三角、珠三角完善的制造业产业链,能够快速实现机器人本体的量产落地,完美适配具身智能“软硬件一体化”的硬件基底需求。         整体而言,大厂凭借资金、人才、供应链的全方位优势,主攻通用模型、泛化场景与大规模量产产品,聚焦人形机器人等出货量潜力巨大的赛道。         与大厂对应的创业公司同样分为两类,形成了差异化的赛道布局。第一类是高校、实验室、海外科技人才孵化的技术型创业团队,这类企业学术底蕴深厚,核心团队多以博士群体为主,底层模型架构、前沿技术探索能力突出,和早期商汤科技的学术研发底色高度相似。         凭借顶尖的人才团队,这类企业专注世界模型等前沿技术迭代,主攻具身智能底层技术突破,也是资本市场重点押注的“技术颠覆者”。         第二类是深耕垂直场景的产业型创业公司,以普渡机器人等企业为代表。这类企业深耕仓储、送餐、防爆、巡检等细分场景十余年,深度吃透行业客户需求、场景数据与垂直供应链,早已完成场景适配与技术打磨。

C |          不同于前沿技术团队,这类企业不追逐通用技术热点,而是持续筑牢垂类场景壁垒,目前头部企业已实现数亿元至数十亿元营收,完成初步商业化验证。         一直以来,市场存在路线之争:押注通用大模型,还是深耕垂直场景?          “当下行业仍处于百花齐放的培育阶段,各类玩家赛道错位、相互赋能。”林骏达表示,五年前具身智能行业门槛高、回报慢,难以吸引顶尖人才,而如今资本入场带动人才大规模涌入,为行业发展奠定了基础。随着本体、大脑、小脑技术不断融合,各类玩家赛道边界逐渐交融,但分层竞争、互补发展的核心格局不会改变。         白皮书认为,人形机器人的核心价值在于天然适配人类创造的物理世界,而非对其他形态的全面替代。未来3至4年,单一的人形机器人形态无法适配全场景作业需求,过度押注可能带来产业资源错配与非理性发展。到2030年,工业机械臂、轮/四足机器人、人形机器人等三类机器人将形成清晰分工、长期共存的稳定格局。         资本高热暗藏泡沫:技术出圈容易,产业化落地道阻且长          2026年上半年,具身智能赛道分化态势愈发极端。

D | 资本市场疯狂追捧主打具身智能大脑、大模型算法的创业公司,相关标的接连拿下大额融资,估值快速膨胀;而另一边,能够稳定产生营收的垂类机器人企业获得的关注度却相对有限。         在林骏达看来,资本扎堆布局具身智能大脑赛道,核心是复刻了早期大语言模型的投资逻辑——顶级人才团队具备技术颠覆潜力,前沿模型技术一旦实现突破,便能重塑行业格局,参考OpenAI、Anthropic的成长路径,资本市场愿意为顶尖技术团队的长期价值买单。         但在具身智能赛道高热之下,林骏达对行业泡沫保持清醒的谨慎。         他指出,具身智能是典型的“知行合一、软硬件一体化”赛道,绝非单纯的模型算法比拼,无法脱离硬件本体独立发展。

E | 机器人的环境感知、动作捕捉、运动控制、实时纠错等核心能力,都需要依托硬件传感、物理控制体系实现,单纯的软件模型优势无法弥补硬件工程化、场景适配的短板,这也是诸多实验室顶尖技术难以落地的核心原因。         更为关键的是,当前多数热门的模型类创业公司仍停留在实验室验证阶段,尚未触及产业化核心难题。

F | “技术出圈容易,产业化落地很难。

G | ”          林骏达强调,具身智能产业化需要经历技术产品化、产品商品化、商品产业化三大阶段,目前绝大多数前沿模型企业仅完成技术探索,尚未落地标准化产品,距离规模化商业化、产业化还有漫长距离。         反观行业内的垂类场景企业,已经率先完成商业化闭环。送餐、化工防爆、矿山巡检等半封闭场景,凭借刚需属性、可量化的降本增效价值,已经实现万台级出货、数亿元级营收,部分企业现金流持续优化,成功跑通商业模式。这类场景不仅能够持续放大供应链规模、降低硬件成本,积累的真实场景数据还能反哺前沿模型迭代,成为行业稳健发展的“压舱石”。         对于行业未来走势,林骏达总结了“两条腿走路”的健康发展格局:一方面,垂类务实场景持续放量,未来三年各细分赛道头部企业将彻底定型,完成从商业化到产业化的跨越;另一方面,国内依托人才、政策、资本红利,在前沿具身智能大模型领域持续对标美国头部企业,实现技术赶超。         在资本热度维度,林骏达认为,行业热度将由三大因素决定:一是硅谷前沿技术的迭代风向标,二是国内产业政策与刚需场景的牵引力度,三是企业商业化闭环与现金流改善速度。短期资本热度仍将维持高位,但中长期会向真正具备落地能力、盈利潜力的企业集中,行业将逐步告别泡沫化炒作,进入务实落地的高质量发展阶段。         针对行业资本化路径,林骏达表示,赛道企业已形成清晰的分层上市格局。营收稳定、现金流向好的垂类场景龙头,适配科创板等A股资本市场,依托产业资源持续巩固行业话语权;深耕前沿技术、具备核心技术壁垒但尚未实现大规模营收的创新企业,更适合港股18C等包容性板块,依托耐心资本持续深耕技术研发。         资本市场正在等待一个标杆样本。在林骏达看来,宇树科技近期顺利过会已成为行业标志性事件,打破了市场对机器人赛道“难以资本化”的固有认知,极大提振了行业信心,将推动更多优质具身智能企业对接资本市场,加速行业优胜劣汰。         免责声明:本文内容与数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议,使用前请核实。

H | 据此操作,风险自担。         每日经济新闻。

I |

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